The NFL did it. They defied the angle a division couldn’t be played during a pandemic. An ESPN address abundant aloof how acceptable of a job they did; aback Aug.1, there were 724 absolute tests out of 954,830 tests. That’s a positivity amount of 0.076 percent. The infection amount backward so low throughout the affliction months this country has apparent in the pandemic. There were several postponements, but no cancellations. All playoff amateur went on as scheduled. It was actually arresting to see. Now it’s Super Bowl week.
In this column, I will be breaking bottomward the big bold including several prop bets, whether it’s a amateur prop or bold prop. My best admonition would be to affliction the bold as to what you anticipate will appear and bet accordingly. If you apprehend a shootout, again go over on canyon attempts and completions. If you apprehend a ball-control, low-scoring game, again go beneath hasty yards, etc. I’d awful admonish not action the bread toss. That’s because you accept to bet $102 to win $100 on a 50/50 chance. You’re bigger off action that with a acquaintance and this way don’t accept to pay the added juice.
I can’t accent abundant to boutique about for the best value. If you’re in Nevada, you accept a deluge of sportsbooks to accept from. If you’re in New Jersey, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet are options. If you’re alien with gambling, -110 agency you accept to lay $110 to win $100. If the band is 110, that agency you bet $100 to win $110.
These backdrop were begin in VSIN’s 97-page prop bet compilation, as able-bodied as DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks. Yes, 97 pages. I apprehend it all. Let’s dig in!
Shortest touchdown of the bold beneath 1.5 (-140) – South Point
I bet this every adventitious I could in the postseason. It’s abundant juice, but account it. With referees reviewing every scoring play, how generally is the agent bottomward aloof afore the ambition band which again sets up the 1-yard touchdown? The over/under is 56 which agency we’re assured a lot of credibility and touchdowns. Added affairs to get that 1-yard touchdown.
First canyon attack of Patrick Mahomes abridged ( 180), Tom Brady ( 175) abridged – South Point
Last year, Mahomes threw an blunder on his aboriginal attempt. Jimmy Garoppolo completed it. Two years ago, both Tom Brady and Jared Goff threw an blunder on their aboriginal attempt. How will that appulse this game? There is actually no alternation but if you bet both and one of them throws an abridged canyon on that aboriginal pass, you win, because you’re accepting additional money on both.
Antonio Brown over 38.5 accepting yards (-110) – Circa
Brown has played 10 amateur this year and went over this mark in six of them. It’s no abstruse Brown is Brady’s admired weapon and loves to get him the ball. Say what you appetite about Brown off-the-field, on-the-field, he’s electric. He could actual able-bodied be the x-factor in this one. I anticipate this is too low.
Sammy Watkins over 2.5 receptions (-150) – Circa
Watkins has not played aback Dec. 27 adjoin the Falcons. All the absorption will be on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Total penalties accustomed beneath 10.5 ( 105) – Circa
Flags fly acutely every added comedy during the approved season. Refs adulation to bandy them on the aboriginal nudge alike aback the brawl is befuddled to the added ancillary of the field. But not in the playoffs. They let them play. Both championship amateur backward beneath 10.5. Aloof one of four bounded amateur did. And the Wild Card annular saw two out of six go over the number. That’s a almanac of nine to the under, three to the over. In the accomplished bristles Super Bowls, this beneath would accept hit in three of them. This cardinal is aloof way way too aerial and you’re accepting additional money.
Total players with a canyon attack over 2.5 ( 150) – Circa
This is a fun prop. Aftermost year I had it and the 49ers ran an end-around to Deebo Samuel, he chock-full attractive to throw, I jumped up but again no one was accessible and he ran it for a loss. I knew appropriate again and there I absent my chance. But all you charge is one ambush play, one affected punt, one adulterated acreage ambition breeze with the holder throwing it, annihilation of that nature. I abhorrence to say this, but an abrasion to a quarterback gets you the win too.
Total punts beneath 6.5 (-150) – Station Casinos
In the postseason, the Bucs punted nine times in three amateur while the Chiefs punted already in two games. Anticipate of the avant-garde NFL. You get the brawl at the 25. One 20 backyard canyon and you’re already at the 45. Bandy in addition 10-yarder and you’re already in adversary territory. Now it’s appealing abundant four-down territory. Andy Reid and Bruce Arians will booty their shots on fourth bottomward in this game. Which leads me to…
Will Chiefs catechumen a 4th bottomward attempt? – Superbook
Will Bucs catechumen a 4th bottomward attempt? – Superbook
Jon Rahm -0.5 4th annular birdies vs. Leonard Fournette receptions (-120) – Superbook
Rahm has never accomplished worse than T-16 at the Phoenix Open. He loves this advance as he played academy golf at Arizona State and now lives in Arizona. He fabricated bristles birdies aftermost year and is one of the top players on tour. If he’s hot, attending out.
Who will accept more? James Harden credibility 0.5 absolute credibility in 1st bisected (-110) – Superbook
The Nets will be arena the Sixers Saturday night on a back-to-back. That agency there’s a achievability Kevin Durant sits out. Harden has been averaging 24.3 credibility per bold in Brooklyn but that will absolutely be college if Durant doesn’t play. The over/under in the aboriginal bisected is 27.5 but I apprehend that to go under.
This bold comes bottomward to the Bucs’ adeptness to burden Mahomes after blitzing. They accept the players to do it; Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, and William Gholston. They addled Aaron Rodgers who did not assume to face abundant burden all season. The Chiefs’ abhorrent band absent their starting larboard tackle, Eric Fisher, in the AFC appellation game. They’ll be missing three of their bristles starting abhorrent linemen from the alpha of the year. Only the center, Austin Reiter, is in the aforementioned position from Anniversary 1. All of this could be a arguable point because Mahomes is a magician.
But again there are the Bucs linebackers featuring Devin White who’s all over the field. Their accessory takes affairs but they’re fearless. And they’re led by arresting authority Todd Bowles.
Bucs 27 – Chiefs 21
Bucs win by 4-6 credibility ( 1000) – South Point
Thanks for account my columns all year. I’ll be aback autograph my NFL Survivor Picks alternation in the fall!
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